Black Swan Contagion Threat

High Risk: A second cyclone hitting Madagascar raises concerns about the potential for cascading natural disasters and humanitarian crises.

Track the unknowable — this page monitors black swan scenarios.

Unknown risk card for 2026-02-22

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Why This Matters

Uncertainty isn’t a gap in knowledge — it’s a category of risk. This page visualizes tail risk indicators that lie outside conventional forecasting. Whether environmental, political, or technological, these events are few — but vast in consequence.

Black swan risk deserves its own spotlight.