Methodology

Data Collection

Each day, Panthrisk collects up to 50 of the most recent headlines from each RSS feed assigned to a risk category. These feeds are curated and sourced from mainstream news outlets, academic institutions, government agencies, and research centers.

We currently track six core existential threat domains:

• Nuclear War
• Artificial Intelligence
• Climate Change
• Pandemics
• Information Integrity
• Unknown / Black Swan

Sources are manually vetted and listed on each category's detail page.

AI-Assisted Analysis

Panthrisk uses GPT-4o to evaluate the daily article set for each category. The AI model is given a structured prompt instructing it to:

• Summarize the overall threat landscape based on the latest headlines
• Evaluate current risk by considering both short-term misuse and long-term existential scenarios
• Generate a numeric score from 1.0 (Low Risk) to 5.0 (Critical Risk)
• Assign a matching risk label (for example, Moderate Risk)
• Recommend targeted risk-reduction actions for relevant actors such as Government and NGO

Prompts are custom-tailored for each category to reflect domain-specific considerations.

Sample Prompt: Artificial Intelligence

This is the full prompt used for the AI risk assessment:

You are an expert analyst in global artificial-intelligence risk. Using the news articles below, assess today's AI threat level considering both short-term misuse and long-term existential scenarios (alignment failure, uncontrolled self-improvement, military deployment, concentration of power, etc.).

Rate the threat 1.0 - 5.0 (decimals allowed, max 5) using:
1.0-1.9 = Very Low Risk
2.0-2.9 = Low Risk
3.0-3.9 = Moderate Risk
4.0-4.9 = High Risk
5.0     = Imminent / Critical Risk

Return only this JSON object:

{
  "score": number,
  "label": string,
  "summary": string,
  "justification": string,
  "actions": [string, ...],
  "citations": [int, ...]
}

Scoring and Labeling

The AI assigns a numeric score between 1.0 and 5.0, with the following general interpretation:

• 1.0-1.9: Low Risk
• 2.0-2.9: Mild Risk
• 3.0-3.9: Moderate Risk
• 4.0-4.9: High Risk
• 5.0: Critical Risk

These scores are not based on predictive models or long-term probabilities. They reflect the perceived urgency and threat level of current developments as reported in the news.

Global Risk Score

Each day, the six category scores are averaged to create the Global Risk Score, a single number representing the current composite threat level. This score is not weighted and serves as a public-facing summary signal.

The global card includes a one-sentence AI-generated summary highlighting the most significant shift in threat dynamics that day.

Recommended Actions

Alongside each category score, the AI recommends actionable steps that governments, organizations, or individuals could take to reduce risk. These suggestions are derived from the article context and adjusted for feasibility.

They are not endorsements or guarantees. They are meant to inspire risk-aware decision-making.

Limitations

Panthrisk is a daily signal, not a predictive model. It does not forecast future disaster likelihood, nor does it assign probability weightings to events.

• All assessments are based on publicly available information
• Headlines may reflect biases in media attention, not necessarily real-world impact
• AI models are fallible and may misclassify or underweight certain developments

We are committed to refining this system over time and welcome outside feedback and scrutiny.

Change Log

For a record of platform changes that may affect trend interpretation such as model upgrades, data source adjustments, or scoring updates, see the Panthrisk Changelog.

Contact

If you are a researcher, policymaker, or forecaster and would like to challenge or improve this methodology, please email us at support@panthrisk.com.