Accidental Launch Risk Today

High Risk: The global nuclear threat level is elevated due to increased nuclear activities by China, tensions surrounding Iran's nuclear ambitions, and the expiration of key arms control treaties.

Assessing real-time instability in nuclear posturing.

Nuclear war risk card for 2026-02-21

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Why This Matters

Although nuclear weapons have not been used in active warfare since the end of World War II, the potential for catastrophic escalation remains deeply embedded in global affairs. Modern geopolitical tensions, provocative rhetoric from nuclear-armed states, the erosion of key arms control agreements, and ongoing modernization of arsenals all contribute to a volatile and unpredictable threat landscape. Deterrence remains a fragile concept, vulnerable to miscalculation, misinformation, and rapid escalation in the age of instant communication and asymmetric conflict.

Panthrisk monitors these developments in real time, translating complex strategic posturing, treaty breakdowns, and global reactions into a clear, daily risk signal. By making sense of subtle shifts in policy, behavior, and narrative, we help identify whether the global nuclear environment is maintaining equilibrium — or sliding toward instability.