Unknown / Black Swan

The renewed activity of Indonesia's Anak Krakatau volcano, known for its catastrophic 2018 eruption and tsunami, signals a potential for unexpected geological events that could have cascading effects on regional stability and global supply chains. This development is compounded by a series of other natural phenomena, such as tropical cyclones and peatland fires, which could synergistically amplify the impact of any volcanic activity. The unpredictability and potential scale of these events, combined with their historical precedent, elevate the risk level to high, as they could lead to significant humanitarian and economic disruptions.