Unknown / Black Swan

The discovery of a new variant of the African Swine Fever Virus in Spain represents a high-risk Black Swan event due to its potential to disrupt global pork supply chains, cause economic losses, and trigger food security issues. This virus is highly contagious and has no vaccine, making it difficult to control once it spreads. The agricultural sector could face severe impacts, leading to cascading effects on economies reliant on pork production and export. Additionally, the potential for the virus to spread to other regions could exacerbate these impacts, highlighting the unpredictability and severity of this threat.