Unknown / Black Swan

The detection of rabies in Cape Fur Seals represents a significant ecological anomaly with potential cascading impacts on marine ecosystems and human health. This unexpected development could disrupt local biodiversity, affect fisheries, and pose a zoonotic threat if the virus spreads to humans or other animal populations. The rarity and unpredictability of such an event, coupled with its potential to cause widespread ecological and economic disruption, elevate the risk level. Additionally, the geopolitical tensions in Ukraine with the introduction of Russian 'Starlink' technology could lead to unforeseen escalations, further contributing to the moderate risk assessment.