Unknown / Black Swan

The development of Russian 'Starlink' technology creating coverage over Ukraine introduces a significant Black Swan risk due to its potential to disrupt existing drone command and control systems. This could lead to unforeseen escalations in the region, affecting not only military operations but also broader geopolitical stability. The unpredictability of how this technology might be used or countered adds to the complexity, making it a notable concern that traditional forecasting models may not fully anticipate. This situation underscores the interconnectedness of technological advancements and geopolitical tensions, highlighting the potential for cascading impacts across multiple domains.