Unknown / Black Swan

The unexpected emergence of rabies in Cape Fur Seals in South Africa is a concerning development that could have unforeseen ecological and public health impacts. Rabies is a highly infectious and deadly virus that typically affects terrestrial mammals, and its appearance in marine mammals could signal a shift in the virus's ecology, potentially leading to new transmission pathways and affecting other marine and terrestrial species. This event could disrupt local ecosystems and pose a threat to human populations if the virus spreads beyond the current host species. The novelty and potential for rapid, widespread impact make this a significant black swan risk.