Unknown / Black Swan

The occurrence of destructive fires in Western Europe and significant smoke coverage in Oregon highlights the increasing frequency and intensity of environmental disasters, which are exacerbated by climate change. These events can lead to cascading effects on public health, infrastructure, and economies, especially if they coincide with other stressors like geopolitical tensions or resource shortages. The unpredictability of such events and their potential to disrupt multiple sectors simultaneously elevates the risk level to moderate, as traditional forecasting models may not fully capture the interconnected impacts.