Unknown / Black Swan

Today's assessment highlights a resurgence of geopolitical tensions, particularly involving Iran and the US, which could lead to unpredictable escalations. Additionally, economic uncertainties, such as those posed by new tariffs affecting various industries, contribute to a volatile global environment. These developments, coupled with the ongoing challenges of AI disinformation and its impact on journalism and political discourse, create a complex landscape where traditional forecasting may fail to anticipate cascading effects. The convergence of these factors suggests a heightened risk of Black Swan events that could disrupt global stability.