Unknown / Black Swan

The recent warnings about the capability of Russian Iskander missiles to strike Berlin within minutes represent a severe geopolitical escalation risk. This development is particularly concerning given the current tensions between NATO countries and Russia. Such a capability could lead to heightened military readiness, miscalculations, or even preemptive actions, increasing the likelihood of a broader conflict. The situation is exacerbated by the complex web of alliances and the potential for rapid escalation in response to perceived threats. This risk is compounded by the lack of transparency and communication channels between the involved parties, making it a classic Black Swan event with potentially catastrophic consequences.