Unknown / Black Swan

Today's developments highlight a moderate Black Swan risk primarily due to the uncertain future of quantum technology, which the Department of Defense warns could pose an existential threat to US military missions. This is a classic Black Swan scenario, as the unpredictable nature of quantum advancements could lead to significant shifts in global power dynamics and military capabilities, with cascading effects on geopolitical stability. While other existential threats were mentioned, such as climate change and AI impacts, the quantum technology threat stands out due to its potential to disrupt existing military and technological paradigms in unforeseen ways.