Unknown / Black Swan

The potential disruption in quantum technology poses a significant threat to national security, as highlighted by the Department of Defense's warning about its impact on US military missions. This development is particularly concerning due to the unpredictable nature of quantum advancements and their potential to undermine existing security frameworks. The intersection of technological unpredictability and geopolitical stakes elevates this risk to a high level, as traditional forecasting models may not adequately anticipate the rapid evolution and deployment of quantum technologies by adversaries.