Unknown / Black Swan

The ongoing crisis in the Strait of Hormuz represents a significant geopolitical risk due to its potential to disrupt global oil supply chains. This narrow passage is a critical chokepoint for the world's oil transportation, and any escalation could lead to severe economic impacts worldwide. The situation is compounded by the complex geopolitical tensions in the region, which could lead to unforeseen military confrontations or blockades. Such an event would not only affect energy markets but could also trigger broader economic instability, highlighting the unpredictability and potential severity of this Black Swan event.