Unknown / Black Swan

The situation in the Strait of Hormuz represents a high-risk geopolitical escalation that could disrupt global oil supply chains, leading to significant economic instability worldwide. This region is a critical chokepoint for oil transportation, and any conflict or blockade could have cascading effects on global markets and energy security. The potential for miscalculation or unintended escalation in this volatile area increases the likelihood of a broader conflict, making it a plausible Black Swan event. Additionally, the interconnected nature of global economies means that disruptions here could trigger a series of unforeseen consequences across various sectors.