Unknown / Black Swan

The situation in the Strait of Hormuz is a critical geopolitical flashpoint that could lead to severe global economic disruptions. As a vital chokepoint for the world's oil supply, any escalation in this region could trigger a cascade of economic and political consequences worldwide, affecting energy markets, international relations, and global trade stability. The unpredictability and potential for rapid escalation make this a high-risk Black Swan event that traditional forecasting models struggle to anticipate.