Unknown / Black Swan

The report of Iranian strikes posing an 'existential threat' to Gulf states highlights a significant geopolitical risk that could escalate into broader regional conflict, potentially disrupting global oil supplies and economic stability. Such developments are unpredictable and can have cascading effects on international relations and markets, fitting the criteria of a Black Swan event. The potential for sudden escalation and the involvement of multiple nations in the Gulf region increases the complexity and unpredictability of the situation, warranting a heightened threat level assessment.