Unknown / Black Swan

The threat to cut submarine internet cables in the Straits of Hormuz and Bab Al-Mandab is a significant Black Swan risk due to its potential to disrupt global financial systems and communications. These cables are critical infrastructure for international data transmission, and their severance could lead to unprecedented economic and operational chaos, affecting stock markets and financial transactions worldwide. This threat intersects geopolitical tensions and technological vulnerabilities, making it a uniquely unpredictable and disruptive event that traditional forecasting models might not anticipate.