Unknown / Black Swan

The threat of cutting submarine internet cables in the Straits of Hormuz and Bab Al-Mandab presents a significant Black Swan risk due to the potential for widespread disruption of global financial transactions and communication networks. This action could trigger a cascade of economic and geopolitical consequences, as these cables are critical infrastructure for global connectivity. The strategic importance of these maritime chokepoints amplifies the risk, as any disruption could lead to severe economic instability and heightened geopolitical tensions, particularly in regions already fraught with conflict. The unpredictability and potential for rapid escalation make this a high-risk scenario.