Unknown / Black Swan

Recent developments indicate a heightened risk of geopolitical instability in the Middle East, particularly involving Iran. The potential for conflict in this region could have unpredictable and far-reaching consequences, including disruptions to global oil supplies, increased military engagements, and broader regional destabilization. This situation is compounded by the complex international relations and existing tensions between major powers, which could escalate rapidly and unexpectedly. The convergence of these factors creates a high-risk environment that traditional forecasting models may not fully capture, marking it as a significant Black Swan event.