Unknown / Black Swan

The emergence of quantum computing as a potential existential threat to Bitcoin highlights a significant Black Swan risk due to its ability to disrupt the foundational cryptographic security of blockchain technology. This development could lead to a rapid loss of trust in digital currencies, causing widespread financial instability and cascading effects across global markets. The unpredictability of quantum advancements and their potential to outpace current cryptographic defenses make this a particularly concerning scenario that traditional forecasting models may not adequately anticipate.