Unknown / Black Swan

The unexpected disruption in the aluminum supply chain, attributed to geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, represents a classic Black Swan event with the potential to cause widespread economic instability. This supply shock could lead to significant price volatility, affecting industries reliant on aluminum and potentially triggering broader economic repercussions. The geopolitical nature of the disruption adds layers of complexity, as it may exacerbate existing tensions and lead to further unpredictability in international relations and trade. Such a cascading effect across economic and geopolitical domains elevates the risk level significantly.