Unknown / Black Swan

Recent developments indicate a heightened risk of conflict in the Middle East, particularly involving Iran, which is being perceived as an existential threat by multiple stakeholders. This situation is exacerbated by geopolitical tensions and could lead to widespread instability, affecting global oil markets, regional security, and international relations. The unpredictability of such a conflict, coupled with its potential to cascade into broader economic and political crises, elevates the threat level significantly. The interconnected nature of global supply chains and energy markets means that any disruption could have far-reaching consequences, making this a plausible Black Swan event.