Unknown / Black Swan

Recent developments highlight an escalating situation in the Middle East, particularly involving Iran, which is perceived as an existential threat by Israel and could lead to a broader regional conflict. This situation is compounded by the potential for unexpected retaliatory actions that could disrupt global oil supplies and destabilize international markets. The complexity and unpredictability of the geopolitical dynamics in this region, combined with the potential for cascading effects on global trade and security, elevate this to a high-risk Black Swan event. Such a conflict could have unforeseen consequences that traditional forecasting models may not fully capture, impacting global stability and economic systems.