Unknown / Black Swan

Recent developments indicate a heightened risk of geopolitical instability centered around Iran, with multiple reports highlighting existential threats perceived by Israel and Gulf States due to Iranian actions. This situation is compounded by the potential for military conflict, which could disrupt global oil supplies, exacerbate regional conflicts, and trigger a cascade of economic and security crises. The unpredictability of Iran's future actions and the potential for miscalculation by involved parties elevate this situation to a high Black Swan risk, as it could lead to unforeseen and widespread consequences affecting international relations and global markets.