Unknown / Black Swan

Today's assessment highlights the escalating geopolitical tensions between Iran and Israel, with multiple reports indicating potential existential threats and military escalations. This situation is compounded by the strategic importance of the Strait of Hormuz, which could disrupt global oil supplies and trigger broader economic instability. The convergence of these factors creates a volatile environment with the potential for unexpected and widespread consequences, characteristic of a Black Swan event. The unpredictability of military actions and their cascading effects on global markets and political alliances elevate the risk level significantly.