Unknown / Black Swan

The current fuel shortages in Australia have reached unprecedented levels, threatening the nation's economy, tourism, and international reputation. This situation has the potential to cascade into broader economic instability, affecting global markets and supply chains. Such a disruption could lead to geopolitical tensions, especially if other nations face similar shortages or if Australia's economic challenges impact its trade relationships. The unpredictability and scale of these shortages make them a significant Black Swan risk, as traditional forecasting models may not fully capture the potential for rapid escalation and widespread impact.