Unknown / Black Swan

The recent increase in executions by the Iranian regime, driven by fears of another uprising, suggests a volatile internal situation that could lead to broader regional instability. This development is compounded by the ongoing tensions between Iran and Israel, as well as the potential for miscalculations or escalations that could involve other regional or global powers. Such geopolitical instability could have cascading effects on global markets, energy supplies, and international relations, making it a significant Black Swan risk. The unpredictability of internal uprisings and their potential to spill over into neighboring regions adds to the complexity and severity of the threat.