Unknown / Black Swan

The ongoing conflict involving Iranian strikes and the resulting geopolitical tensions with Gulf states represent a significant Black Swan risk due to the potential for unexpected escalation and widespread impact on global stability and economies. The situation is compounded by the strategic importance of the region, particularly the Strait of Hormuz, which is a critical chokepoint for global oil supply. This could lead to severe disruptions in energy markets and broader economic instability, affecting multiple sectors worldwide. The unpredictability of the conflict's trajectory and the involvement of multiple state and non-state actors increase the risk of a cascading series of events that could have far-reaching consequences.