Unknown / Black Swan

The ongoing conflict between Iran and Gulf states, highlighted by multiple reports of Iranian strikes and the perception of existential threats by Gulf nations, represents a high-risk scenario with potential for widespread geopolitical and economic disruption. The strategic importance of the region, particularly the Strait of Hormuz, a critical chokepoint for global oil supply, amplifies the risk of cascading impacts on global markets and energy security. The involvement of major powers and the potential for miscalculation or escalation into broader conflict further exacerbate the threat level, making this situation a plausible Black Swan event.