Unknown / Black Swan

The ongoing conflict involving Iranian strikes on Gulf states is escalating tensions in a region critical to global oil supply. This conflict is being described as an existential threat by multiple Gulf states, highlighting the potential for significant geopolitical destabilization. The situation is further complicated by the strategic importance of the Strait of Hormuz, through which a significant portion of the world's oil supply is transported. The potential for this conflict to disrupt global oil markets and trigger broader economic and geopolitical consequences is significant, warranting a high-risk assessment.