Unknown / Black Swan

The ongoing conflict involving Iranian strikes and the heightened tensions in the Gulf region represent a significant Black Swan risk due to their potential to disrupt global oil supply chains, trigger broader regional conflicts, and destabilize international markets. The repeated emphasis on 'existential threat' by multiple Gulf states at the UN highlights the severity and unpredictability of the situation. This geopolitical instability could lead to cascading effects on global economies, energy markets, and international relations, making it a high-risk scenario that defies traditional forecasting models.