Unknown / Black Swan

The ongoing conflict in the Middle East, especially the tensions surrounding Iran, has the potential to disrupt global oil supplies, leading to severe economic consequences and geopolitical instability. The Strait of Hormuz, a critical chokepoint for global oil transportation, is at risk of being blocked, which could trigger a cascading effect on global markets, energy prices, and supply chains. Additionally, the conflict could exacerbate existing geopolitical tensions, potentially drawing in major powers and leading to broader regional instability. This situation exemplifies a Black Swan event due to its unpredictability and the scale of its potential impact on global systems.