Unknown / Black Swan

The escalating conflict involving Iran is creating a significant Black Swan risk due to its potential to disrupt global energy supplies and provoke widespread geopolitical instability. The Hormuz Blockade is already impacting global financial markets, and the threat of further escalation could lead to severe economic and political consequences worldwide. This situation is compounded by the interconnected nature of global supply chains and energy dependencies, which could lead to cascading failures across multiple sectors. The potential for this conflict to escalate into a broader regional or even global confrontation represents a high-risk scenario that defies traditional predictive models.