Unknown / Black Swan

Recent developments indicate a significant rise in geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, particularly involving Iran and its potential to disrupt global energy markets by threatening to block the Strait of Hormuz. This scenario is compounded by Israel's military actions against perceived existential threats from Iran, which could lead to broader regional conflict. Such an escalation could severely impact global oil supply chains and economic stability, representing a classic Black Swan event due to its unpredictability and potential for widespread disruption. The convergence of these geopolitical dynamics with existing global economic strains elevates the risk level to high.