Unknown / Black Swan

The current geopolitical instability in the Middle East, particularly the tensions involving Iran, is a significant Black Swan risk. Iran's potential actions, such as threatening to block the Strait of Hormuz, could severely disrupt global oil supply chains, leading to economic shocks worldwide. Additionally, the possibility of military conflict involving major powers could escalate rapidly, causing widespread geopolitical and economic instability. These developments are unpredictable and could have cascading effects across multiple domains, including energy markets, global trade, and international relations, making them a high-risk Black Swan event.