Unknown / Black Swan

Recent developments indicate a sharp escalation in tensions between Israel, the US, and Iran, with military actions being taken to address what is perceived as an existential threat from Iran. This situation is highly volatile and unpredictable, with the potential to destabilize the Middle East significantly and impact global energy markets, particularly if Iran retaliates or if the conflict expands to involve other regional actors. The complexity and unpredictability of this geopolitical situation, coupled with its potential for widespread economic and political repercussions, elevate the risk level to high.