Unknown / Black Swan

The recent joint military operations by Israel and the US against Iran, described as efforts to remove an 'existential threat,' significantly elevate the risk of a broader Middle Eastern conflict. This escalation could disrupt global energy markets, particularly if Iran retaliates by blocking the Strait of Hormuz, a critical chokepoint for oil transportation. Such actions could lead to severe economic and geopolitical instability, impacting global supply chains and financial markets. The unpredictability of Iran's response and the potential for rapid escalation into a wider regional conflict underscore the high Black Swan risk associated with these developments.