Unknown / Black Swan

The recent joint military strikes by the US and Israel on Iran, aimed at neutralizing what they describe as an 'existential threat', have dramatically heightened tensions in the Middle East. This escalation could lead to unpredictable retaliatory actions from Iran, potentially involving regional allies and impacting global energy markets, particularly if Iran attempts to block the Strait of Hormuz. The situation is compounded by the potential for widespread economic repercussions, including surges in oil and natural gas prices, which could destabilize global markets. The complexity and unpredictability of the geopolitical landscape in this region, combined with the involvement of major global powers, make this a high-risk scenario with the potential for cascading impacts across multiple domains.