Unknown / Black Swan

The recent joint military operations by Israel and the US targeting Iran, justified as actions against an 'existential threat,' significantly heighten geopolitical tensions in the Middle East. This development is unpredictable and could lead to widespread regional instability, potentially drawing in other global powers and triggering a cascade of retaliatory actions. The situation is compounded by the potential for miscalculation or escalation into broader conflict, which traditional forecasting models may not fully anticipate. The risk is further elevated by the possibility of cyber warfare and economic disruptions, making the current threat level high.