Unknown / Black Swan

Iran's decision to impose a digital blackout, perceiving the internet as an existential threat, highlights a significant and unpredictable geopolitical risk. This move could lead to severe internal unrest, disrupt global communications, and escalate tensions with other nations. The blackout not only affects the Iranian populace but also has broader implications for international diplomacy, economic stability, and cybersecurity. Such an action could inspire similar measures in other nations, leading to a fragmented global internet and increased geopolitical instability. The potential for cascading effects across multiple domains, including economic, political, and social, elevates this situation to a high-risk level.