Unknown / Black Swan

The potential collapse of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC), as highlighted by Iceland, represents a profound Black Swan risk due to its unpredictable nature and massive global impact. Such an event could drastically alter weather patterns, disrupt ecosystems, and affect global food security, with cascading effects on geopolitical stability. The unpredictability and scale of this potential disruption elevate the threat level significantly, as traditional forecasting models struggle to anticipate the full range of consequences from such a climatic shift.