Unknown / Black Swan

The potential collapse of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC), as highlighted by Iceland, represents a severe Black Swan risk due to its capacity to drastically alter global climate patterns, leading to unpredictable weather events, agricultural disruptions, and geopolitical instability. Such an event defies traditional predictive models and could trigger a cascade of secondary effects, including mass migrations, economic turmoil, and heightened international tensions over resource scarcity. The convergence of these factors elevates the threat level significantly, as the impacts would be both widespread and difficult to mitigate.