Unknown / Black Swan

The recent imposition of new pulp import restrictions by China represents a significant and unexpected disruption to global recycling markets, particularly affecting the supply chains of old corrugated containers (OCC). This has the potential to create a cascading economic impact, not only affecting the recycling industry but also potentially leading to increased waste and environmental degradation due to the reduced capacity for recycling materials. Such a disruption could have far-reaching consequences, impacting industries reliant on recycled materials and exacerbating environmental challenges. The unpredictability and scale of these impacts elevate this situation to a high-risk black swan event.