Unknown / Black Swan

The International Court of Justice's declaration of climate change as an 'existential threat' highlights a profound and unpredictable risk that could lead to widespread geopolitical instability and environmental crises. This ruling may catalyze legal and political actions that disrupt global economic and political systems, especially if countries are held accountable for climate-related damages. The potential for cascading effects, such as forced migrations and resource conflicts, elevates this risk to a high level, as traditional models struggle to predict the complex interdependencies and outcomes of such a global challenge.