Unknown / Black Swan

Recent developments indicate a significant escalation in geopolitical tensions between Israel and Iran, with Israel conducting preemptive strikes to counter perceived existential threats from Iran. This situation is compounded by the potential for broader regional instability, as a nuclear-capable Iran poses a threat not only to Israel but also to the South Caucasus. Such tensions could lead to unpredictable military engagements or economic disruptions, impacting global markets and security. The complexity and unpredictability of these geopolitical dynamics, combined with the potential for cascading effects, elevate the risk level to high.