Unknown / Black Swan

The recent Israeli military strikes on Iran, justified by Israel as a response to an 'existential threat', have significantly heightened tensions in the Middle East. This escalation risks igniting a broader regional conflict that could involve multiple state and non-state actors, leading to widespread instability. The situation is compounded by the potential for miscalculation or unintended consequences, such as disruption of global oil supplies or retaliatory attacks on Israeli or allied targets. The unpredictability and potential for rapid escalation make this a high-risk Black Swan event with global implications.