Unknown / Black Swan

The recent Israeli strikes on Iran, justified by Israel as a preemptive measure against an existential threat, have significantly heightened tensions in the Middle East. This situation is compounded by Iran's nuclear ambitions, which are perceived as a threat not only by Israel but also by other regional and global powers. The potential for these tensions to spiral into a broader conflict represents a high Black Swan risk, as it could destabilize the region and disrupt global economic and political systems in unforeseen ways. The involvement of multiple nations and the potential for nuclear escalation make this a particularly volatile situation that traditional forecasting models may not fully capture.