Unknown / Black Swan

The recent military actions by Israel against Iran, justified by the perceived existential threat of Iran's nuclear program, have significantly heightened geopolitical tensions in the Middle East. This escalation risks triggering a broader regional conflict that could involve multiple state and non-state actors, potentially disrupting global energy markets and leading to widespread instability. The situation is further complicated by the potential for retaliatory actions by Iran and its allies, which could have cascading effects across the region and beyond. The unpredictability of the outcomes and the involvement of nuclear capabilities elevate this to a high-risk scenario that traditional forecasting models struggle to fully anticipate.