Unknown / Black Swan

Recent findings on various infectious diseases such as the Oropouche virus, Burkholderia thailandensis, and new lineages of Borrelia in flying foxes indicate a rising unpredictability in pathogen behavior and spread, which could lead to unexpected outbreaks. The adaptation of pathogens, such as the genomic deletion in Plasmodium falciparum and the persistence of SARS-CoV-2 variants in animal reservoirs, complicates control measures and vaccine effectiveness. These developments, combined with global travel and climate change, increase the likelihood of pandemics. Additionally, the rapid advancements in AI and genetic engineering, while promising, introduce uncertainties in biosecurity and dual-use risks that could be exploited unintentionally or maliciously.